BlackjackPilot

Dealer Bust Rates by Upcard

Interactive dealer bust rate chart by upcard with exact combinatorial probabilities. Toggle decks and S17/H17, then drill matching basic strategy spots.

See exact fresh-shoe dealer bust probabilities for every upcard using BlackjackPilot combinatorial analysis.

Memorize when the dealer is most likely to bust, then drill the matching stiff-hand spots in practice.

FAQ

Why do dealer 5 and 6 upcards bust so often?

With a 5 or 6 showing, the dealer must draw at least two more cards to reach 17+. That extra draw window creates more bust paths than stronger stiff totals or high cards.

Do these numbers include dealer blackjack?

No. Bust % is only the chance the dealer finishes above 21. Ace and 10 upcards also show a separate blackjack % for two-card naturals.

How is this different from card counting?

These are fresh-shoe combinatorial probabilities. As cards are removed, real bust rates shift with composition — that is what counting and the simulator model later.

How will this connect to Bust It side bets?

Bust It pays on the dealer draw path, not just whether the upcard is weak. This table is the Layer-0 bust probability per upcard that the side-bet simulator will extend with exact draw-path modeling.