BlackjackPilot Blog

Key True Count Deviations (Advanced)

High‑impact Hi‑Lo deviations driven by True Count, with practical priorities and caveats by rules.

Published September 11, 2025

Topic: Card Counting

True Count (TC) not only sizes your bets — it shifts some decisions away from basic strategy. These shifts are called deviations. Prioritize a handful of high‑frequency, high‑impact pivots first; they capture most of the value with the least cognitive load.

Note: Pivots below are for Hi‑Lo and typical shoe games (S17/H17 6D). The exact TC numbers can shift slightly with rules/penetration. Treat them as practical defaults and validate for your exact ruleset.

Fast priorities (start here)

These are the easiest to remember and pay off quickly:

Insurance — take at TC ≥ +3.
16 vs 10 — stand at TC ≥ 0; otherwise hit.
15 vs 10 — stand at TC ≥ +4; otherwise hit.
12 vs 3 — stand at TC ≥ +2; otherwise hit.
12 vs 2 — stand at TC ≥ +3; otherwise hit.

Why these? They occur frequently and swing EV meaningfully with TC. Get them automatic before adding more.

Practical notes

Round consistently (floor or nearest) — do not mix policies.
Drill on realistic shoes — estimation errors in decks‑remaining move TC a lot late‑shoe.
Don’t force rarely‑seen pivots early. Add them after the core set is stable.

Expanded list (popular pivots)

Approximate Hi‑Lo pivots; verify with your rules/pen.

Situation	Play (if TC ≥ …)	Else
Insurance	Take at +3	Skip
16 vs 10	Stand at 0	Hit
15 vs 10	Stand at +4	Hit
12 vs 3	Stand at +2	Hit
12 vs 2	Stand at +3	Hit
10 vs 10	Double at +4	Stand
9 vs 2	Double at +1	Hit
9 vs 7	Double at +3	Hit
10 vs A	Double at +4	Hit

These are common I18/Fab4‑style entries. Some lists differ by ±1 pivot depending on S17/H17, DAS, and deck count. You can check all Deviations (Illustrious 18 + Fab 4)

Drills you can run now

Deviations: Index plays by true count - Deviations
Quick ID: flash 25 prompts — Count Flash
Scenario reps: live sequences — Count Live
Targeted reps: set up 6D S17 in your simulator and sample late‑shoe spots to test TC swings.

Implementation tips

Add pivots in batches of 3–5 with a two‑week focus window.
Track mistakes explicitly; remove and re‑add a pivot if accuracy drops.
Prefer “if TC ≥ X then Y” phrasing in your notes for clarity.

What to add next

13 vs 2/3 (S17 tables), 12 vs 4/5/6 fine‑tuning, and some pair and soft double nuances.

To extract value fast, lock in the few pivots above, then expand at your pace. Combine them with a steady TC conversion and a pragmatic bet ramp for a big chunk of the available EV.